Aged Care Market Expansion
CareHub's 8th Disease Module | Q3 2027 Global Rollout
1.4B
People 60+ by 2030
WHO projects 1 in 6 people globally will be over 60
WHO projects 1 in 6 people globally will be over 60
$1.7T
Global Market by 2030
Elderly care services, home care, nursing facilities
Elderly care services, home care, nursing facilities
61.2M
US Population 65+
3.1% growth 2023-2024; 11 states where elderly outnumber children
3.1% growth 2023-2024; 11 states where elderly outnumber children
$470B
Unpaid Caregiver Value
34M+ US family caregivers providing uncompensated care
34M+ US family caregivers providing uncompensated care
I. Executive Summary
The Aged Care Opportunity
Aged Care represents CareHub's 8th disease/condition module, expanding our platform beyond chronic disease management into the fastest-growing healthcare segment globally. Unlike our existing 7 modules (Cancer, Alzheimer's, Autism, Parkinson's, Long COVID, Diabetes, Obesity), Aged Care introduces a fundamentally different user dynamic: caregiver-centric tracking rather than patient self-tracking.
Key Market Drivers:
- Demographic Shift: By 2030, 1 in 6 people globally will be 60+ (WHO). The 80+ population will triple between 2020-2050 to reach 426 million.
- Care Gap: 70% of people 65+ will need long-term care services, but only 30% can afford professional care without depleting assets.
- Caregiver Burden: 34 million unpaid US caregivers provide $470B+ in uncompensated care annually—burning out, lacking tools, making medication errors.
- Institutional Pressure: Nursing homes face staffing shortages (450,000+ unfilled positions), regulatory compliance burdens, and family communication challenges.
Different Model, Bigger Multiplier
Our chronic disease modules average 1.2 users per patient (patient + occasional caregiver). Aged Care averages 3-5 users per patient: adult children, spouse, paid home aides, visiting nurses, facility CNAs. This multiplier effect dramatically increases platform engagement, data richness, and enterprise value per patient.
How Everyone Wins
- Family Caregivers: Coordinate care across siblings, track ADLs, share updates without endless phone calls
- Nursing Homes: Streamline CNA documentation, reduce compliance burden, improve family satisfaction scores
- Home Care Agencies: Track aide performance, coordinate shift handoffs, demonstrate value to families
- Physicians: Real-time visibility into patient decline between quarterly visits—earlier interventions
- CareHub: Higher ARPU ($15-50/patient vs $3-20), larger user base per patient, sticky multi-stakeholder adoption
Sources: WHO "Ageing and Health" Fact Sheet (October 2025); US Census Bureau "Older Adults Outnumber Children" (June 2025); AARP "Valuing the Invaluable" Caregiving Report (2023); Genworth Cost of Care Survey (2024).
II. Global Market Analysis
Population Aging: A Global Phenomenon
Population aging is accelerating faster than any previous demographic shift in human history. The WHO reports that between 2015 and 2050, the proportion of the world's population over 60 will nearly double from 12% to 22%.
| Region | Population 60+ (2024) | Population 60+ (2030) | % of Total Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 1.1 billion | 1.4 billion | 17% → 22% |
| United States | 61.2 million (65+) | 73 million (65+) | 18% → 21% |
| Canada | 7.3 million (65+) | 9.4 million (65+) | 19% → 23% |
| United Kingdom | 12.5 million (65+) | 14.2 million (65+) | 19% → 21% |
| Australia | 4.5 million (65+) | 5.8 million (65+) | 17% → 21% |
| Japan | 36 million (65+) | 37 million (65+) | 30% → 31% |
| Germany | 18.5 million (65+) | 21 million (65+) | 22% → 26% |
| China | 280 million (60+) | 370 million (60+) | 20% → 25% |
Market Size by Segment
| Segment | US Market (2024) | Global Market (2024) | CAGR 2024-2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nursing Home Care | $195B | $520B | 5.2% |
| Home Health Care | $142B | $390B | 7.8% |
| Assisted Living | $92B | $215B | 5.5% |
| Adult Day Services | $12B | $28B | 6.1% |
| Hospice Care | $24B | $58B | 8.2% |
| Total | $465B | $1.2T | 6.5% |
Sources: WHO "Ageing and Health" (October 2025); US Census Bureau Population Estimates (June 2025); Statistics Canada Population Projections (2024); UK Office for National Statistics (2024); Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024); IBISWorld Industry Reports (2024); Grand View Research "Elderly Care Market Analysis" (2024).
III. Unique Value Proposition: Caregiver-Centric Model
Why Aged Care is Different
Our existing 7 disease modules are primarily patient-centric: the patient tracks their own vitals, symptoms, and medications. Aged Care (our 8th module) flips this model to caregiver-centric: family members, paid aides, and nursing staff track on behalf of patients who often cannot self-report due to cognitive decline, physical limitations, or communication barriers.
The Multiplier Effect
| Factor | Chronic Disease (7 Modules) | Aged Care (8th Module) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary User | Patient (self-tracking) | Caregiver (tracking for patient) |
| Users per Patient | 1.2 average | 3-5 average |
| Data Points/Day | 5-10 (vitals, symptoms) | 15-30 (ADLs, behaviors, incidents) |
| Revenue per Patient | $3-20/month | $15-50/month |
| Payer Mix | Hospitals, Pharma | Nursing homes, Home care agencies, Families, PACE programs |
ADL Tracking: The Core Feature Set
Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) are the standard measure of functional status in geriatric care. CareHub's Aged Care module tracks:
- Feeding: Intake percentage, texture modifications, fluid consumption, refusals, assistance level
- Bathing: Frequency, assistance required, skin integrity observations, behavioral responses
- Toileting: Bowel/bladder logs, incontinence episodes, skin breakdown risk, catheter care
- Mobility: Transfer assistance, fall incidents, ambulation distance, wheelchair use, bed positioning
- Dressing: Assistance level, appropriate clothing, grooming status
- Medication: Administration times, refusals, side effects, PRN usage
Behavioral Tracking: Critical for Dementia
For patients with Alzheimer's or other dementias (overlap with our existing module), behavioral tracking is essential:
- Agitation/Aggression: Triggers, duration, interventions that worked
- Wandering: Exit-seeking behavior, elopement risk
- Sundowning: Evening confusion patterns, sleep disruption
- Verbal Behaviors: Repetitive questions, calling out, inappropriate speech
- Mood: Withdrawal, tearfulness, anxiety, apathy
Multi-Caregiver Coordination
The platform enables seamless handoffs between multiple caregivers:
- Family Dashboard: Adult children in different cities see real-time updates
- Shift Notes: Paid aides document care before clocking out
- Care Team Chat: Coordination without endless phone tag
- Incident Alerts: Falls, behavioral episodes, medication errors—immediate notification
- Physician Reports: PDF summaries for quarterly appointments
IV. Q3 2027 Rollout: Phase 1 Markets
Phase 1: English-Speaking Markets + Mexico (Q3 2027)
Initial rollout focuses on markets with established regulatory frameworks, English-language compatibility (leveraging existing app localization), and strong enterprise healthcare infrastructure.
| Country | Target Segment | Year 1 Partners | Year 1 Patients | Year 1 ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Nursing homes, Home care agencies | 2-3 regional chains | 15,000-25,000 | $3.6-6M |
| Canada | Long-term care facilities | Sienna Senior Living + 1 other | 5,000-8,000 | $1.2-2M |
| Mexico | Private elder care, Family caregivers | 2 private networks | 8,000-12,000 | $1-1.5M |
| United Kingdom | Care homes, NHS community services | 2-3 care home groups | 10,000-15,000 | $2.4-3.6M |
| Australia | Aged care facilities, Home care packages | 2 aged care providers | 6,000-10,000 | $1.4-2.4M |
| Phase 1 Total | 10-13 partners | 44,000-70,000 | $9.6-15.5M |
Partner Acquisition Strategy
- US: Target regional nursing home chains (50-200 facilities) seeking CMS 5-Star rating improvements. Lead with compliance/documentation value proposition.
- Canada: Provincial health authority partnerships—Ontario and BC prioritized for population density and regulatory environment.
- Mexico: Private elder care networks serving upper-middle-class families + direct-to-family marketing through Spanish-language app.
- UK: Care Quality Commission (CQC) compliance tools + family communication features for care home groups.
- Australia: Aged Care Quality Standards compliance + NDIS-adjacent positioning for home care packages.
Top 3 Target Partners: Phase 1 Rollout
1. Ensign Group (US) — Regional Nursing Home Operator
- Profile: 290+ skilled nursing facilities across 14 states; 32,000+ beds; $3.5B revenue (2024)
- Why Ensign: Decentralized "cluster" model gives individual facility administrators autonomy to pilot new technology—faster decision-making than mega-chains like Genesis or Sabra
- CMS Stars: Strong focus on quality improvement; 65% of facilities rated 4+ stars; actively seeking documentation tools to maintain ratings
- Tech Readiness: Already uses PointClickCare EHR; CareHub integrates via existing APIs; family portal fills gap PCC doesn't address
- Pilot Potential: 5-10 facilities in California or Texas cluster; 1,500-3,000 residents; $450K-900K Year 1 ARR
- Mission: "To dignify long-term care in the eyes of the world."
2. Bupa Aged Care (UK/Australia) — Global Care Home Operator
- Profile: 125 care homes in UK (10,000 beds) + 72 homes in Australia (6,500 beds); part of Bupa Group ($18B global revenue)
- Why Bupa: Cross-border presence enables single partnership to cover 2 Phase 1 markets; strong regulatory compliance culture (CQC in UK, ACQS in Australia)
- Family Focus: Bupa has invested heavily in family engagement—"Bupa Care Services" app exists but lacks clinical depth; CareHub fills feature gap
- Quality Scores: 78% of UK homes rated "Good" or "Outstanding" by CQC; Australia portfolio recently passed Royal Commission scrutiny
- Pilot Potential: 10 homes each in UK and Australia; 2,000 residents; $480K-720K Year 1 ARR
- Mission: "Helping people live longer, healthier, happier lives."
3. Sienna Senior Living (Canada) — Canada's Largest Senior Living Provider
- Profile: 81 seniors' residences across Ontario and BC; 13,000+ beds; C$780M revenue (2024); TSX-listed (SIA)
- Why Sienna: Largest publicly traded senior living company in Canada—covers both long-term care and retirement communities; provincial government relationships for regulatory buy-in
- Quality Focus: Significant investment in quality improvement post-COVID; "Butterfly" dementia care model adoption shows innovation willingness
- Tech Readiness: Active digital transformation initiative; seeking family engagement tools to differentiate from competitors
- Pilot Potential: 10-15 Ontario LTC homes; 2,500-4,000 residents; $600K-960K Year 1 ARR
- Mission: "To help seniors live fully, every day."
Pricing Model: Higher ARPU Than Chronic Disease
- Nursing Homes: $15-30/resident/month (compliance documentation + family portal)
- Home Care Agencies: $10-20/client/month (caregiver coordination + outcomes tracking)
- PACE Programs: $20-50/participant/month (comprehensive tracking for at-risk elderly)
- Direct-to-Family: $5-10/month (remote monitoring, care coordination)
Blended ARPU: $20/patient/month (vs $8/patient/month for chronic disease modules)
V. Phase 2: Global Expansion (2028-2029)
Phase 2 Markets: Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America
Following 12-18 months of Phase 1 validation, expand to high-growth aged care markets with localized versions.
2028 Expansion
| Region | Countries | Target Partners | Projected ARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Europe | Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain | 2-3 per country | $8-12M |
| Asia-Pacific | Japan, South Korea, Singapore | 2-3 per country | $6-10M |
| Latin America | Brazil, Argentina, Colombia | 2 per country | $3-5M |
2029 Expansion
| Region | Countries | Target Partners | Projected ARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scandinavia | Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland | 2 per country | $4-6M |
| Greater China | China (Tier 1 cities), Taiwan, Hong Kong | 3-5 total | $10-20M |
| Middle East | UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel | 2-3 total | $3-5M |
Regulatory Considerations
- EU: GDPR compliance already built into platform; additional focus on health data sovereignty requirements
- Japan: Long-Term Care Insurance system integration; Japanese language localization critical
- China: Data localization requirements; partnership with local entity essential; focus on private facilities initially
- Middle East: Arabic language support; cultural sensitivity in caregiver gender matching
VI. 5-Year Revenue Projection: Aged Care Module
Aged Care Module Revenue: 2027-2031
| Year | Phase | Countries | Patients | ARPU | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | Phase 1 Launch (Q3) | 5 | 50,000 | $20 | $12M |
| 2028 | Phase 1 Mature + Phase 2 Launch | 15 | 200,000 | $18 | $43M |
| 2029 | Phase 2 Expansion | 25 | 500,000 | $16 | $96M |
| 2030 | Global Scale | 35 | 1,200,000 | $15 | $216M |
| 2031 | Market Leadership | 40+ | 2,000,000 | $14 | $336M |
Note: ARPU decreases over time due to geographic mix shift toward lower-cost markets. Volume growth more than compensates.
Aged Care Contribution to Total CareHub Revenue
| Year | 7 Disease Modules ARR | Aged Care ARR | Total ARR | Aged Care % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $30M | $12M | $42M | 29% |
| 2028 | $115M | $43M | $158M | 27% |
| 2029 | $350M | $96M | $446M | 22% |
| 2030 | $830M | $216M | $1.046B | 21% |
| 2031 | $1.2B | $336M | $1.536B | 22% |
Key Insight: Aged Care module alone exceeds $300M ARR by 2031, representing a standalone business worth $1.5B+ at 5x revenue multiple. Combined with our 7 chronic disease modules, CareHub reaches $1.5B+ total ARR by 2031.
VII. Beta Program Integration
Updated 8-Module Beta Timeline
With Aged Care as our 8th module, the beta program timeline expands:
| Module | Beta Start | Full Launch | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cancer | Q1 2026 | Q3 2026 | Primary pilot |
| Alzheimer's/Dementia | Q2 2026 | Q4 2026 | Strong aged care overlap |
| Autism | Q2 2026 | Q4 2026 | Caregiver-centric learnings |
| Parkinson's | Q3 2026 | Q1 2027 | Aged population overlap |
| Diabetes | Q4 2026 | Q2 2027 | Comorbidity with aged care |
| Long COVID | Q4 2026 | Q2 2027 | Multi-system tracking |
| Obesity | Q1 2027 | Q3 2027 | Metabolic health |
| Aged Care (NEW) | Q2 2027 | Q3 2027 | 8th module launch |
Synergies with Existing Modules
Aged Care is not a standalone vertical—it integrates deeply with our existing disease modules:
- Alzheimer's: 80%+ overlap. Dementia tracking features port directly to Aged Care behavioral monitoring.
- Parkinson's: Significant elderly population. Mobility tracking, fall risk, medication timing all transfer.
- Diabetes: 25% of 65+ population has diabetes. Glucose monitoring + ADL tracking = comprehensive view.
- Cancer: Palliative care for terminal elderly patients bridges oncology and aged care.
VIII. Competitive Landscape
Current Market: Fragmented and Feature-Poor
The aged care technology market is highly fragmented with no dominant platform offering comprehensive ADL tracking + family coordination + EHR integration.
| Competitor | Focus | Limitations | CareHub Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| PointClickCare | Nursing home EHR | No family portal; US-only; expensive | Family-first + global scale |
| MatrixCare | Senior living operations | Facility-centric; weak mobile | Mobile-first; caregiver-centric |
| CareSmartz360 | Home care agency software | Agency workflow only; no patient outcomes | Outcomes tracking + family visibility |
| CaringBridge | Family updates (journal) | No clinical tracking; no professional integration | Full ADL tracking + EHR integration |
| Honor/Home Instead | Home care matching | Service delivery only; no platform play | Platform agnostic; any provider can use |
CareHub's Unique Position
No competitor combines:
- Comprehensive ADL tracking (6 domains + behaviors)
- Multi-caregiver coordination (family + paid + professional)
- EHR integration (ProviderConnect™ already built)
- Cross-disease comorbidity tracking (8 modules in one platform)
- Global infrastructure (multilingual, multi-currency, GDPR-compliant)
- Token-based engagement incentives (unique in aged care)
IX. Implementation Requirements
Connect App Updates
- ADL Tracking Module: New calendar-based interface for feeding, bathing, toileting, mobility, dressing
- Behavioral Log: Quick-entry for agitation, wandering, sundowning, mood changes
- Multi-User Permissions: Family admin, paid caregiver, professional nurse roles with different access levels
- Shift Handoff: End-of-shift summary for paid caregivers with voice-to-text notes
- Incident Reporting: Falls, skin breakdown, behavioral episodes with photo upload
- Family Dashboard: Read-only view for remote family members with push notifications
ProviderConnect Updates
- Nursing Home Portal: Facility-wide dashboard showing all residents, flagging at-risk patients
- CMS Compliance Reports: MDS-compatible data export for US nursing homes
- Family Communication Tools: Secure messaging, scheduled update emails
- Physician Integration: Geriatrician dashboard with ADL trends, medication reconciliation
Development Timeline
- Q4 2026: ADL tracking module design + prototype
- Q1 2027: Beta development + US pilot partner recruitment
- Q2 2027: Closed beta with 2-3 US nursing home partners
- Q3 2027: Phase 1 launch (US, Canada, Mexico, UK, Australia)
X. Sources & Citations
Primary Sources
- World Health Organization. "Ageing and Health" Fact Sheet. October 2025. who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health
- US Census Bureau. "Older Adults Outnumber Children in 11 States, Nearly Half of Counties." June 26, 2025. census.gov
- US Census Bureau. "The Older Population: 2020." May 25, 2023. Decennial Census Report C2020BR-07.
- AARP Public Policy Institute. "Valuing the Invaluable: 2023 Update." Caregiving in America.
- Genworth Financial. "Cost of Care Survey 2024." Long-term care cost trends.
- CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). "Nursing Home Compare" 5-Star Quality Rating System. 2024.
- Grand View Research. "Elderly Care Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report." 2024.
- IBISWorld. "Nursing Care Facilities Industry Report." 2024.
- Statistics Canada. "Population Projections for Canada." 2024.
- UK Office for National Statistics. "Ageing in the UK." 2024.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics. "Population by Age and Sex." 2024.
- UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. "World Population Ageing 2023."
Industry & Market Research
- McKinsey & Company. "The Future of Aging: How Technology Can Transform Care." 2024.
- Deloitte. "2024 Global Health Care Outlook: Laying a Foundation for the Future."
- KPMG. "Aged Care Sector Study: Technology Adoption Trends." 2024.
- Accenture. "Reimagining Elderly Care Through Digital Innovation." 2024.